Sustainable Transportation

Chair:       Vilja Varho, Finland Futures Research Centre
Time:        Friday 10thJune, at 10:30-12:30 & 14:30-15:30
Venue:     Lecture room B3118

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Delphi on Transport and CO2 Emissions – Finnish Scenarios up to 2050 
Vilja Varho, Laura Joki & Petri Tapio
Finland Futures Research Centre, Finland
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Reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases has become one central target in the search for sustainable development. One crucial question is how to fulfil economic and social needs while reducing the ecological impact of human action. We shall discuss the Finnish transport sector, which is growing and yet under severe pressure to cut CO2 emissions. Policies have been set to place to guide the development of the sector, such as emission-based car taxation, but their impact – especially in the long run – remains to be seen. We asked some thirty Finnish Delphi panellists’ views of the probable and preferred future of transport volumes, CO2 emissions, and qualitative changes within the sector, up to the year 2050. We used questionnaires and interviews, including both quantitative and qualitative questions. The panel was chosen to represent widely different areas of expertise, demonstrating variance in terms of age, gender, education, place of employment, etc. Scenarios are made with the aid of a cluster analysis of the quantitative material, and a qualitative content analysis of the qualitative material. The study provides insights to the drivers that shape the future of the transport sector and of the policies that aim to steer transport to a sustainable direction.
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Supply Chains of the Future – Scenarios for an Energy Constrained and Low-Carbon World Until 2030
Tobias Gnatzy, Heiko A. von der Gracht, Inga-Lena Darkow & Johannes Warth
EBS Business School, Germany
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Our paper will present the results of an extensive empirical scenario analysis in the field of business research, more specifically sustainable transport and mobility. In our research we applied an innovative internet-based, real-time Delphi approach and surveyed 48 experts from the fields of transportation and logistics from more than 20 countries around the globe. We were particularly interested in the panel’s view of the role of sustainability in supply chains until 2030. The expert panel discussions resulted in 822 qualitative arguments which we used for scenario writing. The most probable scenario for a sustainable development shows: Supply chains ensure that the cost of emissions is paid by those who reap the benefits, spurred not only by regulation, but also by changes in consumer behaviour. Our research further reveals that supply chains are likely to benefit from improvements in technology which enable significant real-time control, allowing greater flexibility. And although in some sectors regional supply chains are likely to grow in importance, overall the supply chain of 2030 will remain primarily a complex global system – but one where transport costs and emissions are increasingly key constraining factors.
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References
    Gordon, T./ Pease, A. (2006) RT Delphi: An efficient, “round-less” almost real time Delphi method, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 73(4) 321-333.
    Piecyk, M./ McKinnon, A.C. (2010) Forecasting the Carbon Footprint of Road Freight Transport in 2020, International Journal of Production Economics, 128(1) 31-42.
    von der Gracht, H.A./ Darkow, I.-L. (2010) Scenarios for the Logistics Service Industry: A Delphi-based analysis for 2025, International Journal of Production Economics, 127(1) 46-59.
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Analysing the Sustainability of Road Freight Transport – Combining Multiple Sources of Information
Markus Pöllänen & Heikki Liimatainen
Tampere University of Technology, Finland
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Sustainability in general as well as in the context of transport has many dimensions. Here we concentrate on road freight transport and especially on greenhouse gases (GHG). Reducing GHG and above all CO2 emissions has become a key objective as the global attention has focused on climate change. In European projections, transport has been recognised as a sector which is growing in terms of CO2 emissions unlike other sectors. Particularly in road freight transport there are currently no viable alternatives to fossil fuels in large extent. The demand for transport is also expected to grow substantially.
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A widely accepted framework has been constructed for analysing energy efficiency and CO2 emissions in road freight transport. This framework links the economical activity and CO2 emissions in order to analyse different factors and for instance to compare countries with each other or to study the development over time. In this paper we will discuss this framework from the perspective of combining data from national statistics, literature review, web-based survey for hauliers and Delphi survey in order to make sensible forecasts for the next decades considering the development of sustainability and specially CO2 emissions in road freight transport.
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Affecting the Sustainability Innovation Acceptance Through Systematic Mapping and Re-Employing of Actors, the Case of a Renewable Energy Project
Anastasia Tsvetkova1,2, Magnus Gustafsson1,2 & Krys Markowski3
1Åbo Akademi University, Finland, 2PBI – Research Institute for Project-Based Industry, Finland & 1Groupe ESIEE – Université de Paris Est, France
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Despite the publicly recognized need to switch to renewable energy for the sake of sustainability and the existence of solid technical base for that, the efforts to implement such solutions often fail due to the social and business sector resistance, or unfavorable regulatory environment. However, the history shows that most innovations have to go under transformation until they are accepted. The paper presents the method for systematically tracking and managing the factors affecting the success of renewable energy projects.
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The method is based on the actor-network theory, which is intended for exploring the history of innovations’ acceptance by mapping the controversies in the networks consisting of human and non-human actors and their relations. It is proposed in the paper that such mapping is an effective tool for assessing the current state of innovative renewable energy projects and bringing them forward to the desired outcome. It is to be reached by systematically tracking the actors in the program, i.e. the necessary people, technologies and other factors substituting the solution, and the anti-program, i.e. the human and non-human actors preventing the solution implementation project from success, and attempting to employ the latter into the program of the project or neutralize them.
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A Small Step towards Sustainable Transport – Media Debate over Finnish Car Tax Reform
Nina A. Nygren1, Jari Lyytimäki2 & Petri Tapio3
1University of Helsinki, Finland, 2Finnish Environment Institute, Finland & 3Finland Futures Research Centre, Finland
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Finnish car tax reform, which was enacted in 2008, created a lively public debate over transport policy’s environmental and societal impacts. The national level reform was based on EU level requirements for carbon dioxide emission reductions, ultimately aiming to promote more sustainable transport. Based on material from the dominant Finnish newspaper Helsingin Sanomat, we analyze the public discussion on the topic. By using the Environmental Protection Process (EPP) framework as a conceptual tool, we perform a quantitative content analysis on the media discussion of car tax reform. The EPP framework is an integrative tool aimed at gaining an overall view of the characteristics of environmental problems. Our study suggests that societal factors, emissions, targets, measures and potential side-effects of the reform dominate the media discussion of the car tax reform. The future orientation of the discussion appears to emphasize short-term impacts over longer time perspectives. Overall, it seems that despite of relatively wide-ranging discussion, the media debate contributed only marginally to the public understanding of the prerequisites of sustainable transport.
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