Sustainable Energy

Chair:       Jyrki Luukkanen, Finland Futures Research Centre
Time:        Friday 10thJune, at 10:30-12:30 & 14:30-15:30
Venue:     Lecture room B4116
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Energetic Metabolism of European Societies: A Multi Scale Approach for the Analysis of the European Union 15 Countries
Alevgul H. Sorman & Mario Giampietro
Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Spain
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The paper illustrates the application of the MuSIASEM approach within the realm of energetic analysis applied to a case study example of the European Union 15 countries. Initially the paper introduces the concept of building an “energy grammar” (in contrary to the conventional linear flows of energy analysis) capable of making a distinction between different forms of energy and how they flow through the society. Specifically, the grammar characterizes the differentiation between Primary Energy Sources and Energy Carriers and how these perform end use functions for the society. Thereafter, the option space, associated with this dynamic energy metabolism for societies are used to create biophysically feasible scenarios that can help in assisting to the decision making process within ecological economics.
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Keywords: Energetic metabolism, Societal metabolism, Energy Accounting, Energy Statistics, Energy Return on Investment (EROI), Primary Energy Sources, Energy Carriers
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Sustainable Development Criteria to Set the Agenda for Climate Mitigation Technology Research
Sanford E. Gaines
Aarhus University, Denmark
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The Problem: Demand for electricity will increase sharply in next 20-40 years, but current generation technologies threaten the climate system. Many are urgently calling for a massive R&D effort to develop low-cost non-carbon generation, transmission, and end-use technology usable at global scale. Where should governments and other research investors direct the effort?
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Approach: The paper selects cardinal principles of sustainable development and social-ecological resilience theory, including ecological, economic and social/governance factors, with reference to the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment framework. It applies the principles to identify sustainable electricity scenarios, and proposes that the preferred scenarios steer science and technology R&D. For example, intragenerational equity points to need for reliable low-cost electricity for billions of the world’s poor. Social-ecological resilience theory should guide technology choices on ecological and governance terms.
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Outcome: Key conclusions on technology needs/preferences for electricity generation, transmission and use for sustainable development: create capacity for distributed rather than centralized generation (also reduces economic and ecological costs of transmission); where transmission required, more efficient, less intrusive systems; technologies to reduce ecological and social impact of renewable energy (wind, solar, tidal) on sensitive land and coastal areas; minimize deployment of high-impact or overly complex technologies (e.g., biofuels, large hydro, nuclear power); enhance end-use efficiency.
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A Message from B1: Foster Intrinsic Values Among Electricity Consumers

Torgeir Ericson & Hege Westskog
Cicero, Norway
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Due to GHGs households’ electricity consumption should be reduced. However, years with campaigning in Norway suggests large changes are difficult. Thus, we face a paradox: from IPCC we know substantial reductions are necessary, but, the important electricity consumer sector seems not able to contribute. Somehow, we have to overcome this paradox; households cannot be exempted. We discuss whether this is possible by continue looking at the electricity sector in isolation. Instead, we suggest that for significant reductions to take place, systemic large-scale changes that pull coherently in the necessary direction are required broadly in all parts of society simultaneously. We use the IPCC SRES B1 scenario storyline as an indication of how the world has to develop to be within sustainable constraints. One message we get from investigating this future sustainable world is the need for transformation of value systems, which means the human interior dimensions must be addressed. We assume the whole society is geared into developing according to the B1 storyline, and explore how the approach towards household electricity consumers should be. Based on interviews and focus groups we analyze consumer’s relation to electricity and suggest strategies for how to foster changes towards intrinsic/worldcentric values.
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Rearranging Utility-Driven Demand Side Management to Respond Market Conditions
Eeva-Lotta Apajalahti, Eeva Houtbeckers  & Raimo Lovio
Aalto School of Economics, Finland
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Energy saving is expected to be one of the biggest solutions of future in mitigating climate change. Traditionally energy utilities have had strong role in providing Demand Side Management (DSM) actions due to political requirements. After energy market liberalization and privatization in late 1990s in Europe, the search for new market based solutions, i.e. market-driven DSM, has gain interest. After 13 years of energy market liberalization in Finland consumers have finally now started to switch between the energy providers. Energy utilities have thus transformed from being solely production companies into a service companies. This has placed consumers and clients in the center of developing new energy products and thus understanding consumer perspectives has become one of the core issues. By combining data gathered on consumer perspectives and actions toward energy saving by two different methods this paper aims to identify possibilities for energy utility to develop and offer new energy saving products and contracts. Results show strongly skeptical perspectives of consumers towards energy utility in promoting consumer energy saving.
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Microalgae as a Biofuel Feedstock: Risks and Challenges
Liandong Zhu1, Tarja Ketola2 & Erkki Hiltunen3
1 University of Vaasa, Finland, 2 Finland Futures Research Centre & 3Vaasa Energy Institute, Finland
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From sustainability perspective, the potential risks associated with microalgae based biofuel (MBB) production will be investigated in this paper, including environmental, economic, social and cultural dimensions. Environmentally, four main concerns are mapped out: firstly, there exists potential water safety risks, such as water resource abuse, regional pollution caused by downstream, groundwater recharge deficiency, etc.; secondly, unreasonable construction will lead to land use overexpansion, land pollution and service expectancy reduction; thirdly, it may exert a detrimental effect on local ecosystem, causing algal blooms and biological invasion; finally, it may emit unexpected greenhouse gases (NOx, CH4). From an economic risk standpoint, MBB production requires overwhelming investments due to expensive start-up establishment and more people may be unemployed because of increased automation. Socially, contaminant discharge will threaten the health of local animals and people, and over time microalgae may become the medium for mosquitoes to spread disease.  From cultural point of view, it requires time for people in developing countries to adapt MBB to their daily life as an alternative to conventional fossil fuel. Taking the above challenges into consideration, efficient government policies, proactive company behaviors and positive public participation will play an important role in minimizing or even eliminating these potential risks.
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Keywords: microalgae, biofuel, impact, risk, challenge
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Microbial Enhanced Oil Recovery: A Technology Tool for Sustainable Development of Residual Oil
I.A. Jimoh, E.G. Søgaard & S.N. Rudyk
Aalborg University Esbjerg, Denmark
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Microbial enhanced oil recovery (MEOR) take advantages of metabolites produced by bacteria to improve the sweep efficiency and reduce viscosity; change wettability at oil water interface, and alteration of rock properties. Laboratory investigations by fermentation process with molasses as main carbon source and a strain of Clostridium tyrobuytricum have demonstrated great potentials in production of the needed metabolites for enhanced oil recovery purposes. Results from experiments showed that gas production, acid production and biofilm can be sustainable produced at relatively cheaper cost using a residual product. The overall gas yield per 20 g of molasses in 500ml of aqueous solution can be over 2000ml over a period of 96 hours depending on the salinity condition of the medium. This suggests that sufficient production of biogenic gas needed for oil reservoir repressurization is possible.  Production of acid can reach an average of about 1500 mg/l between 24-120 hours. The acid and the microbial fluid were able to modify the properties of chalk samples from the North Sea. These results demonstrate the possibilities of sustainable production of metabolites for enhanced oil recovery by utilization of bacteria and have potential to eliminate the use of harsh chemical during oil recovery processes.
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Keywords: microbial enhanced oil recovery, oil reservoir, acid, gas, sustainable
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Land use for Livelihood Activities in Cambodia – Analysis of Household Survey Results and Agricultural Practices
Tytti Pasanen, Jyrki Luukkanen, Francesca Allievi, Juha Panula-Ontto, Jarmo Vehmas & Burkhard Auffermann
Finland Futures Research Centre, Finland
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This paper discusses the relationship between land management and livelihood activities in Cambodia. A multi-scale integrated analysis of societal and ecological metabolism (MuSIASEM) was applied to the results of a Cambodian household survey in 2009. Overall aim is to explore residential wealth within different income levels and geographical locations.
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Cambodian household survey (n=1261) was conducted by Finland’s Futures Research Centre and Indochina Research Ltd. in 2009. Households in sixteen provinces were asked about their land ownership and livelihood activities. The key of the analysis method, developed by Mario Giampietro, is to represent the performance of an average household in terms of a set of key variables. Variables are divided into fund and flow variables, with fund depicting the resources and flow the relevant outputs of the system. In this study, fund variables consist of the hectares of total farm land, land in cash production and land generating net agricultural income, owned by an average household. Flow variables include total annual expenditure and income from agricultural activities. The main interests include estimating how efficiently land is used in terms of cash income in different income groups and provinces and how important agriculture is for households when it comes to covering total expenditure. These parameters can provide help in understanding wealth and economic structure within different geographical regions and socio-economic backgrounds in Cambodia.
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CO2 Economy in the BRIC Countries – Decomposition Analysis of Brazil, Russia, India and China
Jyrki Luukkanen, Juha Panula-Ontto, Jarmo Vehmas, Jari Kaivo-oja, Francesca Allievi, Petri Tapio, Burkhard Auffermann
Finland Futures Research Centre, Finland
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This article analyses the factors that impact the amount of CO2 emissions and energy use in the so called BRIC-countries, Brazil, Russia, India and China. Different factors having an effect in the greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels are analysed using decomposition analysis. In mathematical decomposition analysis, the observed change in explained variable is divided in meaningful components. The shares of these components can be compared and the change in the shares over time can be studied.
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We have conducted two different types of decomposition analyses. The first one is chained decomposition analysis, in which the observed change in CO2 is decomposed to four intensity factors and an extensive factor, population. The second decomposition analysis is a structural decomposition analysis of the final energy use. In this decomposition the change in final energy use in agricultural, industrial and service sectors are decomposed into activity, intensity and structural effects.
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The results of the decomposition analyses indicate on the one hand some similar trends of convergence in the three economies. This can be interpreted to be caused be the globalisation of the economic processes, which directs the production processes of the companies to develop in similar patterns. On the other hand, there are also differences in the development trends caused by the different structures of the economies.
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